STRUGGL LIVING SCIENCE · PILLAR 04 / 08
VERIFIED DETERMINISTIC CODE + CROSSREF DOIs
Unified Hybrid Load & EWMA ACWR (0.82^d Acute / 0.96^d Chronic Decay + Foster Monotony)
Direct Citation Summary (TL;DR for Athletes & AI Retrieval Engines):
Exponentially weighted daily load: ACUTE_DECAY = 0.82 (7d window, yesterday = 82% of today), CHRONIC_DECAY = 0.96 (28d window). Solves the 7-day rolling average boxcar lag.
Validated against Williams, S., West, S., Cross, M. J., & Stokes, K. A. (2017). Better way to determine the acute:chronic workload ratio? British Journal of Sports Medicine, 51(3), 209-210. (
10.1136/bjsports-2016-096589)
and executed deterministically in the Struggl Hybrid EWMA Workload Subsystem.
1. Interactive Deterministic Calculator
2. Verifiable Reference Benchmark Table
Pre-computed directly from the Struggl Hybrid EWMA Workload Subsystem (_recency_weighted_mean):
| Days Ago (`d`) | Acute Weight (`0.82^d`) | Chronic Weight (`0.96^d`) | 7-Day Rolling Boxcar Weight | Physiological Interpretation (EWMA Model) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day -0 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | Today's session (100% impact on both Acute and Chronic) |
| Day -1 | 82.0% | 96.0% | 100.0% | Yesterday's session (82.0% acute retention vs 100% boxcar) |
| Day -2 | 67.2% | 92.2% | 100.0% | 48h post-session (67.2% acute retention; peak DOMS window) |
| Day -3 | 55.1% | 88.5% | 100.0% | 72h post-session (55.1% acute retention) |
| Day -6 | 30.4% | 78.3% | 100.0% | 6 days ago (30.4% acute retention vs 100% in standard rolling average) |
| Day -7 | 0.0% (Outside 7d) | 75.1% | 0.0% (Cliff Drop) | 7 days ago (Boxcar drops precipitously from 100% -> 0%; EWMA decays smoothly) |
| Day -14 | 0.0% (Outside 7d) | 56.5% | 0.0% (Cliff Drop) | 14 days ago (Chronic fitness anchor retains 56.5% weight) |
| Day -21 | 0.0% (Outside 7d) | 42.4% | 0.0% (Cliff Drop) | 21 days ago (Chronic fitness anchor retains 42.4% weight) |
| Day -27 | 0.0% (Outside 7d) | 33.2% | 0.0% (Cliff Drop) | 27 days ago (End of 28-day chronic horizon: 33.2% weight) |
3. Exact Deterministic Equations (Zero-LLM-Math Architecture)
Exponentially weighted daily load: ACUTE_DECAY = 0.82 (7d window, yesterday = 82% of today), CHRONIC_DECAY = 0.96 (28d window). Solves the 7-day rolling average boxcar lag.
Unified Arbitrary Load Units (AU): Cardio load = duration_min * RPE; Strength set load = sets * reps * ((RPE - 4) / 6) * 2.0.
Computes ACWR = acute_7d_ewma / chronic_28d_ewma (gates: <0.8 undertraining, 0.8-1.3 sweet spot, >1.5 danger zone) + Foster Monotony = mean(7d) / stdev(7d) (gate >2.0).
4. Peer-Reviewed Scientific Evidence & CrossRef DOIs (1,104-Paper Corpus)
| Study / Citation | DOI / Identifier | Mechanistic Role in Struggl Engine |
|---|---|---|
| Williams, S., West, S., Cross, M. J., & Stokes, K. A. (2017). Better way to determine the acute:chronic workload ratio? British Journal of Sports Medicine, 51(3), 209-210. | 10.1136/bjsports-2016-096589 |
Proves Exponentially Weighted Moving Averages (EWMA) are significantly more sensitive to injury risk than rolling averages. |
| Gabbett, T. J. (2016). The training-injury prevention paradox: should athletes be training smarter and harder? British Journal of Sports Medicine, 50(5), 273-280. | 10.1136/bjsports-2015-095788 |
Defines the 0.8-1.3 ACWR sweet spot and the >1.5 injury spike danger zone. |
| Foster, C. (1998). Monitoring training in athletes with reference to overtraining syndrome. Medicine & Science in Sports & Exercise, 30(7), 1164-1168. | 10.1097/00005768-199807000-00023 |
Introduces Session-RPE (duration * RPE) and Training Monotony (mean / SD > 2.0). |
| Sheffield-Moore et al. (2013) — Sildenafil increases muscle protein synthesis and reduces muscle fatigue. (Clinical and translational science) | 10.1111/cts.12121 |
Cited in 1 Nippard audit video(s) |
| Halson et al. (2004) — Does overtraining exist? An analysis of overreaching and overtraining research. (Sports medicine (Auckland, N.Z.)) | 10.2165/00007256-200434140-00003 |
Cited in 1 Nippard audit video(s) |
| Folland et al. (2002) — Fatigue is not a necessary stimulus for strength gains during resistance training. (British journal of sports medicine) | 10.1136/bjsm.36.5.370 |
Cited in 1 Nippard audit video(s) |
| Fry et al. (1997) — Resistance exercise overtraining and overreaching. Neuroendocrine responses. (Sports medicine (Auckland, N.Z.)) | 10.2165/00007256-199723020-00004 |
Cited in 1 Nippard audit video(s) |
| Fry et al. (1994) — Performance decrements with high-intensity resistance exercise overtraining. (Medicine and science in sports and exercise) | PMID:7808252 |
Cited in 1 Nippard audit video(s) |
5. Frequently Asked Questions
How do you combine strength training sets and running into a single ACWR workload?
In the Hybrid EWMA Workload Subsystem, endurance sessions use Foster's sRPE (Duration_min * RPE), while resistance sets are normalized into Arbitrary Load Units via sets * reps * ((RPE - 4) / 6) * 2.0. Both feed into an Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) with ACUTE_DECAY = 0.82 (7d) and CHRONIC_DECAY = 0.96 (28d).